From the
Spartanburg Herald-Journal:
The end of the 2008 primary season means more than it's safe to pick up the phone without the fear it's yet another political call. It means, no matter what happens in November, Spartanburg County's representation in Columbia is drastically altered. And it means 2009 is shaping up to be a strong year for Republican Gov. Mark Sanford and supporters of his agenda.
Much of the agenda is one that most Republicans agree on - less government, less spending and less taxes.
But it also is an agenda that includes issues that are extremely divisive in the Upstate - school choice and school district consolidation, for instance.
Going into November, voters likely will hear some of the same arguments used against candidates in the intense primary season. Think you've heard the last of "out-of-state special interests?" No chance.
The general election, too, will bring with it a slate of variables - from presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain's difficulty in connecting with die-hard conservatives to presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama's difficulty in connecting with rural, white, working-class voters, and the surge of turnout expected for Obama.
Outgoing Spartanburg Rep. Doug Smith, who resigned as state House speaker pro tem this year, said he's glad he got out his way. The Upstate saw the beginnings of a strong anti-incumbency trend that he thinks could spread throughout the state.
And as last week's victory parties were winding down, political observers began warning the winners that not standing by the platform on which they were elected could spell doom after a single term.
"We had a strong delegation, and this delegation coming along will develop into a strong delegation," said Rita Allison, a Republican who had no primary opposition and, barring any write-in candidates, won't have any in November, either.
Though she served 10 years in the Statehouse before and subsequently worked for Sanford, she will begin the new legislative session as a freshman. She is against state-mandated school consolidation, but says tax credits for parents who choose to send their children to private school should be considered as long as it doesn't take money away from public education.
The highest-ranking members of Spartanburg's Legislative delegation, as it stands, are Democratic Sen. Glenn Reese, Republican Rep. Lanny Littlejohn and Democratic Rep. Harold Mitchell. Reese and Littlejohn both face challenges in November.
The Senate Republican Caucus will focus on protecting Republican seats in November and hasn't yet decided if it will be targeting any Democrats, like Reese, political director Wesley Donahue said.
The changing of the guard has brought up many questions about clout. But Allison looks at the newcomers - which, given the fall of so many incumbents, could potentially be from either party come November - and is optimistic.
"We were all new at one time," she said.
"And if they come in willing to learn, those of us who have been there before, we're certainly going to help. I was there for 10 years, and I'm still learning. Whether you've been there 20 years or you're the new kid on the block, things change, people change, life is changing. You learn to go with the change, and help develop that change so it suits the state as a whole."
For some, 2009 could resolve years of frustration - though others might feel even more frustrated than they have in the past.
Smith says he was "excited" when Sanford first took office, though as the governor was unable to push certain bills through the General Assembly, the tactics he employed led to constant bickering rather than discussion of the issues - and created a "herd" mentality that kept some legislators who would have otherwise supported his agenda from doing so.
Most of the changes next year will come in the Senate, which has more power to affect the governor's agenda. Three of the four Senate candidates Sanford supported - including Lee Bright from Roebuck, who has no opposition in November - won their races this month.
"I don't think you'll see this one-person-can-stop-legislation thing anymore," Smith said. "The governor has gone from a toehold to a foothold. It may be what it will do will give those who may have not been willing to jump out in front before, at least comfortably, the chance to do so, and he'll be there to back them up. That was always the Republicans' view, that they would get out there, and when the tide turned publicly, he gave up on them. A lot of them said, 'Where were you?' "
Sanford spokesman Joel Sawyer says he thinks some of the governor's achievements are glossed over - from workers' compensation reform to tax relief for small businesses. Even though Sanford didn't get everything he wanted, Sawyer said, he got some of the things he wanted.
As for working with legislators, "We've tried several approaches to move the ball forward, from sitting down with individuals to holding news conferences to endorsing their opponents. We've tried everything from doing it their way to doing it our way. The problem you find with the General Assembly sometimes is that they try to make it about anything but the issue - they try to make it about the process," he said.
"It's like trying to deal with Goldilocks and the three bears, but there's no 'just right.' We became frustrated early on in the process, because there was never a way to do it the right way."
Sawyer says each year, Sanford gets closer to the "magic number" of legislators needed to sustain vetoes and push legislation forward.
He talks about the successes former Govs. Dick Riley and Carroll Campbell had in their second terms and says, "We think these last two years may be our most productive."
Democrats: Bring it on
Several Democratic candidates have said they hope Obama's name on the top of the ticket will bolster turnout in November - and their own chances at winning.
"He'll bring the party out in force," Spartanburg County Democratic Party Chairman Glenn Lindman said. "He's young. He's about change. He's tech-savvy. And he's running against John McCain, the perfect picture of the way things used to be."
But the effect of the Obama factor is hard to predict.
Sanford "likely" will get involved in November races, Sawyer said - something else Lindman is looking forward to.
"That will help us. Sanford's a polarizing person - even among Republicans. That's got to be splitting their party," he said. "I don't think they're going to be able to recruit their own moderate base enough to pull them over. These incumbents that are leaving, do you think they're going to use their influence to turn around and help that cause? I don't think so."
Republicans, on the other hand, say that many people came to their party out of convenience, and this year's primary was a "cleansing period" or "winnowing" of people who aren't truly dedicated to what the party stands for.
"That's why the right side is becoming a lot stronger, and it's going to make that line between right and left more defined than it has been for a number of years," Smith said. "That's why the moderates took it on the chin this time."
But conservatives are divided on school choice and school consolidation, issues close to Sanford's heart. On election day, for instance, Bright unveiled new campaign signs saying he opposed consolidation.
"That's something we're going to have to agree to disagree with Lee on," Sawyer said. "School consolidation is not a popular issue in Spartanburg County. We get that. Hopefully, someday we can convince the community that there is some benefit to it, like we did down in Sumter County."
Meanwhile, several groups supporting school choice poured tens of thousands of dollars into Spartanburg legislative races this year - though they spent more time talking about spending and other issues.
Those groups, like South Carolinians for Responsible Government, are tied to New York millionaire Howard Rich. The S.C. Club for Growth, Conservatives in Action and ReformSC are in the same boat.
"Two years ago, they might have scored a victory or two. This time, they really picked up some seats," Smith said. "I guess they've got the wind behind their sails right now. Any time that happens, they're not just going to drop the sail. They're going to keep the boat moving. Good, bad, right or wrong."
Many candidates on the receiving end of SCRG attacks - and even a few who benefited from them - pledged to support laws that would require such groups to disclose their financial information the same as other entities that affect elections. Sawyer said the governor's office welcomes a transparency bill, as long as it is across the board and part of a larger ethics reform package.
In the meantime, many of the same attacks used against groups like SCRG in the primary season will be repeated this fall.
"Our effort goes to our candidates and maintaining the influence of Spartanburg County in the state Legislature, which the Republicans wiped out this time," Lindman said. "And a lot of those people were good people - someone you could work with regardless of what side of the aisle they were on. We gave up on a tremendous amount of influence in the primary. Thankfully, it was mostly on the Republican side. But it's still bad for the county. The New York money doesn't give a damn about Spartanburg's influence. And if South Carolina's for sale, then Mark Sanford is the broker in charge."
The learning curve
Supposing Republican newcomers win in November, the county party is already providing crash courses on surviving in Columbia, including speech, issue and debate training.
Spartanburg County GOP Chairman Rick Beltram said he is working with all of his party's nominees to make sure they are prepared to hold office - and as a pre-emptive measure against any Democratic attacks.
"These in-bound folks need to be clear on their agenda," Beltram said. "There were a lot of promises made that these folks won on, and I can assure them that if they change from that, they will be targeted very quickly."
He cites Rep. Keith Kelly, who enjoyed the support of SCRG two years ago only to feel their wrath this go-round.
Smith and Allison said the most important thing the new legislative delegation can do is learn to work together - quickly. Both recalled experiences in which the delegation was uncooperative, which slowed or stopped much of what its members were trying to do individually.
Sawyer offered this piece of advice: "Just don't forget who put you there and don't forget why you're there."
Beltram said he's lobbying Statehouse leadership to make sure the Spartanburg delegation is "fairly treated." He's convinced there are enough open seats that, coupled with the level of activity here, the "no clout" argument holds no merit.
He points to three candidates - Steve Parker, Joey Millwood and Shane Martin - as starting out on the precinct level. He says Martin, in particular, will help the party win over Democrats who won't support Obama.
"We have seen a complete paradigm shift in 2008 in this county," Beltram said. "We've seen a complete shift to a bottom-up view, where a lot of these candidates were activists within the party, which has not been the case in the past. I think Spartanburg County voters … can think that any shift toward the Democrats has been reversed with passion."
Smith wonders how the anti-incumbency wave will play in November. Incumbents should not take any opposition for granted, he said.
He added: "The governor, he may not have won all of his races, but he won enough … where there's a clear message to the Senate that there's going to need to be some leadership changes. It could happen in the House, too. Spartanburg always seems to be the first to be in a progressive place, as far as politics. We were one of the first all-Republican counties in the state, or near-all Republican. That means that some areas of the state might be behind us in timing, that the exact same thing can happen there that happened in Spartanburg. It's coming."
